Comparison of Mean Climate Trends in the Northern Hemisphere
between N.C.E.P. and Two Atmosphere-Ocean Model Forced Runs
Valerio Lucarini and Gary L. Russell
2002: Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 107
(D15), ACL 7, doi:10.1029/2001JD001247
Abstract
Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the
Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Model (AOM). The
computed trends of surface pressure, surface temperature, 850, 500 and
200 mb geopotential heights and related temperatures of the model for
the time frame 1960-2000 are compared to those obtained from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations.
The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the
higher reliability of both the model results and the observations.
A spatial correlation analysis and mean trend comparison are performed,
showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of
the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However the
850 mb temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation,
and the surface pressure and 850 mb geopotential height mean trends
confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general description about
the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this
AOM has in describing through the atmosphere the regional and NH mean
climate trends inferred from NCEP suggests that it may be reliable in
forecasting future climate changes.
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