Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Freshwater and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

James R. Miller and Gary L. Russell

2000: Geophysical Research Letters, 27 (8), 1183-1186


Abstract

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greehouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceaninc liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

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